Highlights

• • Market implies ~48.5% for Sandberg; we estimate ~52%
• • Positive but small EV (~7.1% ROI on a unit stake)

Pros

• + Available odds (2.06) exceed our fair-price threshold (1.923)
• + Slight serve-stat advantage in recent matches supports a small edge

Cons

• - Both players have poor recent form and identical overall records, increasing outcome variance
• - Edge is small and sensitive to limited data — higher model risk

Details

We assess a small value on Vivien Sandberg (home). Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience, so the match is close to even. The market prices Dia Evtimova as the favorite at 1.667 (implied ~60.0%) while Sandberg is 2.06 (implied ~48.5%). Comparing the available recent-match service metrics, Sandberg shows a marginally stronger 1st-serve win rate in the cited matches, suggesting a small edge on serve-hold points on hard courts. We estimate Sandberg's true win probability at 52.0%, which implies fair odds of 1.923; the offered 2.06 is above that line and therefore offers positive expected value. The edge is modest and sensitive to limited data and short-term form, but at the current price the home side appears to be the better value bet.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and surface profiles
• • Marginally stronger recent 1st-serve performance for Sandberg in cited matches
• • Market overprices Evtimova relative to our estimated probabilities