Vladislav Melnic vs Kazuki Nishiwaki
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small but positive value on Vladislav Melnic at 1.877 based on marginally better recent form and an apparent market overlean toward Nishiwaki; the edge is limited and variance is high.
Highlights
- • Home (Melnic) estimated win probability: 54.5%
- • Current home odds (1.877) imply value vs our required odds (>=1.835)
Pros
- + Slightly better recent results in the provided match sample
- + Current price (1.877) is above our breakeven threshold (1.835) producing a small positive EV
Cons
- - Very small sample sizes (both players have 6 matches in the dataset) increase uncertainty
- - Edge is marginal (EV ≈ 2.3%); variance and match volatility make this a higher-risk value
Details
We see a market lean slightly toward Nishiwaki (implied ~55% at 1.806) despite his 0-6 record; Melnic has a marginally better recent record (1-5) and both players have only hard-court matches in the provided samples. Given the available data, we assign a modest edge to Melnic (slightly better form and comparable surface experience) and find the home price of 1.877 offers small positive value versus our estimated true win probability. The market appears to overestimate Nishiwaki relative to the limited form evidence. We remain conservative because sample sizes are tiny and variance is high, so the edge is small but positive at the quoted home odds.
Key factors
- • Melnic has a slightly better recent win record (1-5) versus Nishiwaki (0-6)
- • Both players' recorded matches in the research are on hard courts — no surface mismatch
- • Market probabilities favor Nishiwaki despite his worse recorded form, suggesting a potential misprice