Highlights

• • Market implies 84.3% for Orlov; our estimate is 87.5%
• • Positive EV of ~3.7% on a 1-unit stake at current price

Pros

• + Clear experience and win-rate advantage for Orlov
• + Low offered price still contains small but tangible edge

Cons

• - Edge is modest (EV ~3.7%), so variance can erase short-term profits
• - Research data is limited and recent-match details are truncated, adding uncertainty

Details

We see clear value backing Vladyslav Orlov at 1.185. The market-implied probability for Orlov is ~84.3% (1/1.185). Based on the provided profiles, Orlov has a substantially larger match sample (69 matches) and a positive win-loss record (37-32) while Radovan Michalik has a much smaller sample (15 matches) and a weak record (4-11). Both players have recent clay activity, but Michalik's limited results and lower win rate on the provided data make him the less reliable contender. Conservatively estimating Orlov's true win probability at 87.5% (0.875) yields a positive expected value versus the market price (EV = 0.875*1.185 - 1 ≈ 0.037). Because the market price implies ~84.3%, and our estimate is materially higher, we recommend the home side as value at the quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Orlov has a much larger match sample (69) and a positive overall record (37-32)
• • Michalik's record is poor (4-11) with only 15 matches, increasing uncertainty in his chances
• • Both have clay matches recently, but the form and experience gap favors Orlov