Highlights

• • Orlov is the clear favorite by form and experience, but not to the degree implied by 1.19
• • Zeuch is inexperienced at this level and presents limited upside as an underdog

Pros

• + Orlov: stronger track record and larger match sample
• + Surface familiarity for both reduces a big style-based upset factor

Cons

• - Current price for Orlov (1.19) offers negative EV relative to our model
• - Zeuch's small sample size makes his true level hard to pinpoint, adding variance

Details

We see a clear favorite in Vladyslav Orlov at decimal 1.19 (implied ~84.0%). After comparing form and experience from the available profiles, we estimate Orlov's true win probability around 72.0%: he has a substantially larger match sample, a positive overall record, and both players have recent clay results but Zeuch's professional sample is very small and less consistent. At our 72.0% estimate the fair decimal price is ~1.389; the current 1.19 is too short and offers negative expected value (EV = 0.72 * 1.19 - 1 = -0.143). To have a positive edge on Orlov the market would need to offer at least 1.389. Because no side shows positive EV at the quoted prices (Orlov is over-priced by the market relative to our estimate and the underdog would need an implied probability far higher than we assign), we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Orlov has a larger sample size and better overall win rate than Zeuch
• • Both players have recent clay matches, but Zeuch's pro experience is very limited
• • Market prices (1.19) imply ~84% for Orlov, which exceeds our estimated ~72% true chance