Vladyslav Orlov vs Roberto Cid Subervi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Vladyslav Orlov at 2.45 — our 45% win estimate yields ~+0.1025 EV (≈10.3% ROI) despite some uncertainty from missing opponent/surface details.
Highlights
- • Market implies 40.8% chance; we estimate 45%
- • Recent clay wins and a solid career win rate support a higher true probability
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current price (EV ≈ +0.1025)
- + Direct evidence of recent wins and a decent career win-loss record in the research
Cons
- - No research provided for Roberto Cid Subervi — opponent strength unknown
- - Match surface for this fixture is not specified, increasing outcome variance
Details
We compare the market-implied probability for Vladyslav Orlov (1/2.45 = 40.8%) to our assessment. Orlov's career record in the provided data is 42-32 (≈56.8% overall) and the research shows recent wins on clay in early September 2025, indicating positive short-term form into this match. Given that the market prices Orlov at ~40.8% while his career win rate and recent clay victories suggest a materially higher chance here, we estimate his true win probability at 45%. At that probability the expected value vs the current decimal price (2.45) is positive (EV = 0.45*2.45 - 1 = +0.1025), representing ~10.25% ROI on a 1-unit stake. We note uncertainty because the opponent profile and match surface for this fixture are not provided, which increases variance — but on the evidence given (career win rate and recent form) the 2.45 price offers value.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for home is 40.8% (1/2.45) — lower than our estimate
- • Orlov's provided career record (42-32 ≈ 56.8%) and recent wins on clay indicate above-average form
- • Opponent data and match-surface specifics are missing, adding uncertainty to the true probability