Volodymyr Iakubenko vs Liam Broady
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see a small positive edge backing Liam Broady at 1.07 based on Iakubenko's limited experience and recent losses on relevant surfaces; estimated EV ≈ 3.8%.
Highlights
- • Implied market probability for Broady is ~93.5%; our estimated true probability is ~97%
- • Iakubenko's recent form and surface losses weaken his upset prospects
Pros
- + Positive expected value at available price (EV ≈ 3.79% on a 1-unit stake)
- + Clear negative indicators for the home player in the provided research
Cons
- - Edge is modest — profit margin is small and sensitive to any unobserved information (injury, withdrawal, or matchup nuance)
- - Limited dataset: only one player profile provided, so assessment relies heavily on implied market judgment
Details
The market prices Liam Broady at 1.07 (implied ~93.5%). Based on the available research, Volodymyr Iakubenko has a very limited, recent record (3-4) with consecutive losses on hard/carpet surfaces and no clear indicators of form or experience to suggest he can realistically challenge a heavy favorite. That profile supports a substantially higher true probability for Broady than the implied 93.5%; we estimate Broady's win probability at 97%. At decimal odds 1.07 this produces a small positive edge (EV ≈ 3.79%). Given the scarcity of mitigating factors in the research (injuries, strong recent wins for the home player, or surface advantage), taking the heavy favorite here shows value.
Key factors
- • Iakubenko's limited recent career (3-4) and lack of wins in the provided span
- • Recent losses for Iakubenko on the same surfaces (hard/carpet) seen in the research
- • Market already prices Broady as a heavy favorite (1.07), consistent with the observed quality gap