W. Falkowska/K. Hobgarski vs K. Allen/M. Stankiewicz
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market price for the home favourite (1.13) is too short relative to our estimated 86% win probability, so we find no value and recommend no bet at current odds.
Highlights
- • Implied home probability at 1.13 is ~88.5%
- • Our estimated home probability is 86%, producing a small negative EV at current odds
Pros
- + Away side contains a player (K. Allen) with demonstrably weak recent form, supporting the favourite status
- + Short market price indicates consensus that the favourite is strong
Cons
- - Lack of doubles-specific data and no information on the home pairing limits confidence in a >88.5% true probability
- - Current odds (1.13) do not offer sufficient margin for error; small misestimation turns positive EV into a loss
Details
We estimate the home pair is likely favoured, but the market price (home 1.13 => implied 88.5%) is steeper than our assessment of the true win probability. The only concrete data available is a weak recent form profile for K. Allen (10-21 singles in 2024-25 and poor recent results), which suggests the away pairing is underpowered — but we have no comparable data for the home pair or for doubles form/h2h. We estimate the home true win probability at 86.0% (0.860), which yields a negative expected return at the quoted home decimal 1.13. To be +EV at the current market price the true probability would need to be >88.5%, which we do not have evidence to support. Therefore we do not recommend a bet at these prices.
Key factors
- • K. Allen shows weak recent results and a 10-21 record in 2024-25 (limited confidence for doubles)
- • Market-implied home probability 88.5% (1/1.13) is very high and requires strong evidence to justify
- • No available data on the home pairing or doubles-specific form/H2H increases uncertainty