W. Falkowska/K. Hobgarski vs S E. Cabezas Dominguez/C. Kuhl

Highlights

• • Home implied probability: ~78.7%; our estimate: 75.0%
• • Negative EV at current price (approx -4.8% ROI)

Pros

• + Home is the clear market favorite, reducing variance compared with betting underdogs
• + If any inside information increases the home probability above ~78.7%, value would appear quickly

Cons

• - Available price (1.27) is shorter than our minimum fair price (1.333) — no value
• - Lack of match-specific data increases estimation uncertainty

Details

We have no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data to shift market expectations, so we make a conservative estimate. The market prices the home pair at 1.27 (implied ~78.7%). We estimate the home pair's true win probability at 75.0% given the heavy favorite status but acknowledging doubles volatility and limited information. At our estimate the required fair price would be ~1.333; the available market price of 1.27 is shorter than that, producing a negative expected value. Without evidence to justify moving our probability above market-implied levels, we will not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No external data (form, injuries, surface, H2H) to justify deviating from a conservative estimate
• • Market strongly favors the home pair (1.27), leaving little room for positive EV unless we materially increase our win probability estimate
• • Doubles matches can be more volatile than singles; favorites at short prices can still lose more often than markets imply