W. Falkowska/K. Hobgarski vs Z. Pawlikowska/C. Romero
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a very small positive expected value on the home side at 1.30 based on a conservative 77% win probability, but the edge is marginal and subject to significant uncertainty.
Highlights
- • Minimum required odds for value: 1.299; market offers 1.30
- • Expected ROI is roughly 0.1% per unit — positive but tiny
Pros
- + Strictly positive EV at the available price
- + Price is widely available and close to our conservative threshold
Cons
- - Edge is extremely small and may be wiped out by vig, line movement or execution costs
- - No external match-specific data increases the risk that our probability estimate is off
Details
We compared the market-implied probability for the home team (1.3 decimal → ~76.9%) with a conservative, uncertainty-adjusted estimate of their true win probability at 77.0%. Given the lack of external research (no surface, form, injury or H2H data), we intentionally kept our probability estimate very close to the market figure. The minimum decimal odds required to justify a bet at our estimated probability is 1.299; the available price of 1.30 offers a very small positive edge. The edge is tiny and carries uncertainty due to missing contextual data (doubles chemistry, surface, recent form), but strictly by EV mathematics the home side is marginally profitable at the quoted price.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability at 1.3 is ~76.9%, close to our conservative estimated probability
- • No external data available (surface, recent form, injuries, H2H) → higher uncertainty
- • Doubles matches have elevated variance (team chemistry, matchups) which increases model risk