Weibo vs JD Gaming
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: A conservative model gives JD Gaming a 42% win probability versus market-implied ~41.15%; at 2.43 this yields a small positive EV (~2.1% ROI), but the edge is marginal and sensitive to assumptions.
Highlights
- • Estimated true probability (42.0%) slightly exceeds implied (41.15%)
- • Current odds 2.43 produce a small positive expected value (~0.0206)
Pros
- + Positive expected value at supplied market price
- + Simple, conservative probability estimate avoids overconfidence
Cons
- - Edge is small and sensitive to small probability estimation errors
- - No external form, injury, or H2H data available increases uncertainty
Details
With no external data available we adopt a conservative assessment that JD Gaming (away) has roughly a 42.0% chance to win. The market-implied probability at the quoted moneyline 2.43 is about 41.15% (1/2.43). Adjusting for a modest bookmaker margin and allowing for variance in esports match outcomes, our estimated true probability (42.0%) exceeds the market-implied probability, producing a small positive edge. Using the supplied price (2.43) yields an expected value of ~0.0206 units per 1-unit stake (2.06% ROI). The advantage is marginal and sensitive to our probability estimate, so this is a low-margin, higher-uncertainty value situation rather than a clear market inefficiency.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for JD Gaming (2.43) is ~41.15%
- • We conservatively estimate JD Gaming win probability at 42.0%, slightly above market
- • Small bookmaker margin and match variance create opportunity for a thin positive EV