Highlights

• • Pan's documented record (3-7) implies a much lower win probability than the market price.
• • Current home price (1.287) is far below the fair price implied by our conservative probability estimate.

Pros

• + We use concrete, recent match data for the home player rather than assumptions.
• + Conservative probability estimate accounts for small-sample volatility.

Cons

• - Very limited information on the opponent (Shijie Chen) increases uncertainty.
• - Small sample size for Pan means our estimate could be materially off if additional context (injury, opponent strength) is unknown.

Details

We compare the market pricing (Weiwen Pan 1.287 decimal) to Pan's documented recent form. The only concrete data in the research shows Pan has a 3-7 record across 10 matches (career span Feb–Aug 2025) on hard courts, implying a raw win rate near 30%. The market implies Pan has ~77.7% chance to win at 1.287, which is far higher than Pan's observed win rate in the available sample. We conservatively estimate Pan's true win probability at 35% to allow for limited sample noise and the possibility that the opponent could be stronger than Pan's average opponents. At that estimated probability the fair decimal price would be ~2.857; the current 1.287 offers strongly negative expectation. We therefore do not recommend backing either side at the supplied prices because no value exists relative to our probability estimate. Key uncertainties include extremely limited data on the opponent and a small sample size for Pan, which increases model risk.

Key factors

• • Weiwen Pan's documented 3-7 record across 10 matches (approx. 30% raw win rate)
• • All available matches listed on hard courts — surface alignment but limited sample
• • Market price (home 1.287) implies an unrealistically high win probability (~77.7%) versus available form data