Weiwen Pan/Zhengyu Sun vs Seongwoo Cho/Dukchee Lee

Highlights

• • Home players show weak recent results on hard courts
• • Current market implies a large gap in quality that we cannot substantiate from provided data

Pros

• + Clear market prices allow straightforward comparison vs our probability estimate
• + We have recent match records for both home players on the same surface

Cons

• - No information provided on the away pairing to refine a full-probability model
• - Small sample sizes and limited data increase uncertainty in the true probability estimate

Details

We see the market prices strongly favor the away pair (1.21 => implied ~82.7%) while the home pairing (Pan/Sun) is listed at 4.10 (~24.4% implied). The internal evidence available shows both Weiwen Pan and Zhengyu Sun have poor recent records on hard courts (Pan 3-7, Sun 1-9 across limited matches in 2025) and little positive form to justify a materially higher true chance than the market-implied underdog probability. Given those records and lack of any information suggesting the opponents are vulnerable, we estimate the home pair's true win probability around 12%; at that level the fair odds would be ~8.33. The current home price (4.10) is well below that fair threshold, producing a large negative EV (-0.508 per unit). Conversely, backing the heavy-away market price (1.21) would require us to believe the away pair's true win probability exceeds ~82.7%, which we cannot confidently assert from the supplied data. Therefore there is no positive expected value on either side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Both home players have poor recent hard-court records (Pan 3-7; Sun 1-9)
• • Market heavily favors away pair (1.21), implying ~82.7% win chance
• • Available data offers no evidence the home pair deserve >24% implied chance