Highlights

• • Implied probability for away (1.01) is ~99% — inconsistent with Liu's 10-21 career record
• • Home at 16.0 requires only a >6.25% true chance to be +EV; we estimate ~12%

Pros

• + Very large margin between implied and estimated true probabilities, yielding high calculated EV
• + Kallista's recent results and career win rate do not support near-certain favorite pricing

Cons

• - Limited information about Weixuan Wang and head-to-head/surface matchup increases uncertainty
• - Extreme odds can indicate market error, posting/cancellation risk, or missing contextual info not present in the provided research

Details

We find a large market distortion: the away price of 1.01 implies a ~99% win probability for Kallista Liu, which is inconsistent with the provided performance data (career record 10-21 and multiple recent losses). Given only the supplied research, Kallista's recent form and overall win rate do not justify near-certain pricing. Even a modest probability that Weixuan Wang wins (well above 6.25%) produces positive expected value at the available home decimal odds of 16.0. We therefore estimate a conservative true win probability for the home underdog and compute EV versus the current market price; the margin is large enough to recommend backing the home side on value principles, while noting high uncertainty due to limited opponent-specific and matchup details.

Key factors

• • Extreme market price: away 1.01 implies ~99% which conflicts with available form data
• • Kallista Liu's documented career record (10-21) and recent string of losses indicate vulnerability
• • Sparse information on Weixuan Wang and matchup specifics increases uncertainty but also raises value threshold for a small upset