Highlights

• • Bookmaker implies ~95% for the home player at 1.05
• • Our assessed true win chance for Ewald is ~60%, so current price is negative EV

Pros

• + We avoid backing an inflated market favorite with weak supporting form
• + Clear break-even threshold (need ~1.667) helps identify required market movement for value

Cons

• - Research lacks information on Alexia Trasca, limiting the precision of our probability estimate
• - If additional inside info exists (injury to opponent or other factors) it could flip value quickly

Details

The market prices Weronika Ewald at 1.05 (implied ~95.2%). Ewald's public profile shows a 10-21 career record and poor recent form across clay and hard; there is no corroborating data in the Research to justify a >95% true win probability. Given limited opponent information and Ewald's losing record, we estimate her true probability substantially lower. Using our conservative estimate (60.0% chance), the bookmaker price for the home side offers negative expectation (EV = 0.60*1.05 - 1 = -0.37). To consider a bet we would need significantly higher odds on Ewald (or stronger evidence of heavy favoritism) — at current prices there is no value on either side based on the Research provided.

Key factors

• • Ewald's documented career record is 10-21, indicating overall weakness
• • Recent match notes show losses on both clay and hard, suggesting form concerns
• • Market price (1.05) implies an unrealistically high probability given available data; opponent information is absent