Highlights

• • Favorite implied probability 98.0% vs our estimate 95.0% — negative EV on the market favorite
• • Underdog would need >7.7% true chance to be +EV at 13.0; we estimate her well below that

Pros

• + Clear qualitative class gap supports Falkowska as heavy favorite
• + Market is very liquid and reflects a strong consensus (tight price), minimizing soft-book arbitrage risk

Cons

• - Extremely low return on the favorite creates no staking-friendly EV
• - Limited public data on surface/conditions and H2H prevents fine-grained model adjustments

Details

We view the market as pricing Weronika Falkowska as a near-certain favorite (implied ~98.0% at 1.02). Based on the available career and form data, Falkowska is the clear class advantage: extensive experience (559-507 career record across surfaces) versus Claudia Sofia Martinez Solis' limited sample (10-21). We estimate Falkowska's true win probability around 95.0%, which is materially lower than the book's implied 98.0%, so there is no positive expected value backing the favorite at 1.02. Conversely, backing Martinez Solis at 13.0 would require her true win probability to exceed ~7.7% to be +EV; given her record and inexperience, we judge her chance to be below that threshold. Therefore we recommend taking no bet at the current prices.

Key factors

• • Large experience and match-volume advantage for Falkowska (559 career wins vs a rookie profile)
• • Market-implied probability for the favorite (1.02) is ~98.0%, higher than our best-estimate true probability (~95%)
• • Martinez Solis' small sample (31 matches) and 10-21 record make an upset probability below the 7.7% needed for value at 13.0