Weronika Falkowska vs Katharina Hobgarski

Highlights

• • Away implied probability 75.9% vs our implied ~65% (from home 35%) — no value on the favorite
• • Home min fair odds = 2.857; current 3.30 exceeds this threshold

Pros

• + Clear statistical parity in provided data supports market mispricing
• + Current decimal 3.30 offers +EV under conservative probability estimates

Cons

• - Research dataset is limited and shows little separation; uncertainty remains high
• - If additional information (seedings, recent head-to-head, or injuries) favors the favorite, value evaporates

Details

We view the market price (Away 1.318 / Home 3.30) as overstating the gap between these two players. The research shows nearly identical careers, recent form and surface experience for Weronika Falkowska and Katharina Hobgarski (similar records, no injury information, both with matches on clay and hard). The implied market probabilities are ~75.9% for the away and ~30.3% for the home. Given the lack of differentiating evidence and symmetric data, we estimate the home player’s true win probability materially above the market-implied 30.3% but still below 50%. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 35% for Falkowska, the 3.30 decimal price offers positive expected value: EV = 0.35 * 3.30 - 1 = +0.155 (15.5% ROI). The away price at 1.318 implies ~75.9% and offers no value versus our estimate (~65% chance for the away implied by our home estimate), producing a negative EV. Therefore we recommend taking the home moneyline at current widely-available prices.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided research
• • No injury or surface advantage indicated that would justify the heavy market favoritism
• • Market implies ~76% for the away which looks overstated given the data; therefore home price appears to contain value