Highlights

• • Market-implied probability 76.3% vs our 82% estimate — positive edge
• • Experience and larger sample size are the primary drivers of the projected edge

Pros

• + Clear statistical advantage in career wins and experience
• + Comfortable on hard courts and broader surface history reduces downside surprises

Cons

• - Both players show recent losses at Challenger events, introducing form uncertainty
• - ITF matches can produce upsets; favourites at short prices still carry variance

Details

We view Weronika Falkowska as a clear favorite based on career experience (559-507 across many surfaces) versus Maria Sholokhova's limited record (10-22) and short career span. The market price of 1.311 implies a win probability of ~76.3% (1/1.311). We estimate Falkowska's true win probability at 82% given superior experience, broader surface history including hard courts, and a materially better career win rate; that gives positive edge versus the market. Using the current decimal 1.311 for the home side produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.82 * 1.311 - 1 ≈ 0.075), so a bet on the favorite represents value under our model. We note some short-term form noise (both have recent losses at Challenger-level events) and inherent upset risk in ITF matches, so we treat this as a medium-risk value play rather than a lock.

Key factors

• • Substantially greater career experience and match volume for Falkowska
• • Sholokhova's short career and 10-22 record indicates lower baseline winning likelihood
• • Both players have recent hard-court activity, but Falkowska's broader surface competence favors consistency