Highlights

• • Market heavily favors Hobgarski despite weaker career record
• • At our estimated 57% win chance, Falkowska's odds of 2.84 produce ~62% ROI on a 1-unit basis

Pros

• + Clear discrepancy between market odds and career-level win rates
• + Large sample size for Falkowska increases confidence in her baseline probability

Cons

• - Recent form for both players in provided data shows losses, introducing short-term uncertainty
• - Limited contextual info on surface, conditions, and head-to-head increases variance risk

Details

We see a pronounced market lean toward Katharina Hobgarski at 1.385 while Weronika Falkowska is priced at 2.84. Comparing the provided career records, Falkowska shows a large sample (559-507, ~52.4% career win rate) across multiple surfaces, whereas Hobgarski's record is 10-21 (~32.3%) on a much smaller sample. The market-implied probability for Falkowska at 2.84 is only ~35.2%, which appears inconsistent with the career-wide performance differential. Accounting for Falkowska's substantially larger sample size and higher career win rate, we estimate Falkowska's true win probability at 57.0%. At the current price (2.84) that yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.57 * 2.84 - 1 ≈ 0.619), indicating significant value. We acknowledge uncertainty from recent form (both players show recent losses in the provided matches) and limited context about surface/conditions, so we conservatively discount extremes and still find value at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Falkowska's much larger career sample (1066 matches) and higher overall win rate (~52.4%)
• • Hobgarski's small sample (31 matches) and low win rate (~32.3%) suggest higher variance and possible market overvaluation
• • Market-implied probability for Falkowska (≈35.2%) is well below our estimated true probability (57%), producing value