Weronika Falkowska vs Valentina Mediorreal Arias

Highlights

• • Profiles nearly identical — no clear edge to justify 1.07 favorite
• • Conservative estimated away win chance 48% vs implied ~11.8% at 8.5

Pros

• + Extreme positive EV at current market price
• + Decision based on direct comparison of the provided player data (parity)

Cons

• - Market may reflect unseen late information (injury/withdrawal) not present in the research
• - Limited dataset in the provided research; estimates rely on parity assumption

Details

We find clear value on the away moneyline. The publicly available profiles show both players with effectively identical career records (10-21) and similar recent results on the same surfaces, with no injuries or H2H information provided to justify a one-sided market. Given that parity, a realistic true win probability for the underdog is near 45–50%. The bookmaker price of 8.5 for Valentina Mediorreal Arias implies a ~11.8% chance, which is far below our estimated probability. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 48%, the away side offers a very large positive expected value at the available 8.5 price. We note the risk that bookmakers may be reacting to information not in the provided research (late withdrawal, injury, travel issue) which would justify the short favorite; absent such information in the research, the price looks mispriced and represents value.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical public profiles and 10-21 records in the provided data
• • No injuries, withdrawals, or H2H data provided — default expectation is a close match (~50/50)
• • Bookmaker odds (away 8.5) imply ~11.8% — large discrepancy vs our estimated probability