Highlights

• • Market-normalized Wildcard chance ~32%; we estimate 34%, creating slight edge
• • Required fair odds for value are 2.941; market offers 2.97

Pros

• + Positive EV at current widely-available home price
• + Conservative, margin-aware probability estimate reduces overstating value

Cons

• - EV is very small (~0.98%), sensitive to small probability misestimation
• - No match-specific data available (form, maps, injuries), increasing uncertainty

Details

We compare the current market moneyline (Home 2.97, Away 1.392) against a conservative estimate of true win probability. The raw implied probabilities (1/odds) sum to an overround; after normalization the market implies ~32% for Wildcard and ~68% for BOOM. Given no external form/injury data and the inherent variance in Dota 2 matches, we apply a conservative uplift to the underdog (Wildcard) to account for market favorite-bias and map/tournament variance, estimating Wildcard's true win probability at 34%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 1/0.34 = 2.941; the current home price of 2.97 is slightly higher, producing positive expected value. We therefore recommend the home moneyline only because its expected value at the publicly-available price (2.97) is positive, albeit small.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities (normalized) place BOOM as clear favorite
• • Conservative uplift to underdog probability to account for bookmaker margin and game variance
• • No external form/injury data available, increasing uncertainty and value in slight underdog mispricings