Wilson Leite vs Bruno Kuzuhara
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small value backing Wilson Leite at 4.23; our model estimates his win probability at ~26% versus market-implied ~23.6%, producing ~10% ROI.
Highlights
- • Underdog Leite priced 4.23 implies only a 23.6% chance
- • We estimate Leite at ~26% — enough to create positive EV at current prices
Pros
- + Current odds (4.23) exceed our break-even threshold (3.846)
- + Both players show inconsistent recent results, increasing upset probability
Cons
- - Kuzuhara has a slightly better career win record and is the market favorite
- - Value margin is modest and match outcome is high variance — result could still go either way
Details
The market heavily favors Bruno Kuzuhara at 1.18 (implied ~84.7%); that price implies Kuzuhara is almost certain to win. Reviewing both players' recent records and overall ITF-level form, Kuzuhara has a modest edge in career wins (26-30 vs 17-29) but both players show inconsistent results and mixed recent form. There is no strong surface or head-to-head evidence that justifies an ~85% winning probability for Kuzuhara. We estimate Wilson Leite's true chance at about 26%, meaning the current underdog price of 4.23 (implied 23.6%) offers positive expected value. At our estimated probability, the fair break-even odds for Leite are ~3.846; the current 4.23 exceeds that threshold, producing an estimated ROI of ~0.10 (10%) on a 1-unit stake. We therefore identify a small value on betting the home underdog rather than taking the heavy-market favorite.
Key factors
- • Market implies Kuzuhara ~84.7% chance (1.18) which appears overstated given both players' inconsistent recent form
- • Kuzuhara has a modest career edge but not dominance (26-30 vs Leite 17-29) — match is more toss-up than market price
- • No decisive surface or H2H evidence in the provided data to justify overwhelming favorite status