Highlights

• • Both players show similar career records and surface history in the provided data
• • Available home price (3.74) exceeds our fair-price threshold (3.125)

Pros

• + Significant gap between implied and our estimated true probability providing positive EV
• + Decision grounded on comparable public performance data rather than speculative factors

Cons

• - Limited and incomplete recent-form data increases model uncertainty
• - Low-ranked/closely matched players often have high variance; pick carries distribution risk

Details

We see both players with nearly identical public profiles (10-21 career records, experience on clay and hard, limited recent form advantage for either). The market is heavily skewed to Jessica Pieri at 1.257 (implied ~79.6%), while Wushuang Zheng is available at 3.74 (implied ~26.7%). Given the near-identical win-loss and surface history shown in the provided profiles and lack of clear injury or H2H edge, we judge the market is overstating Pieri’s chance by a margin roughly equal to the bookmaker vig and uncertainty. We estimate Zheng’s true win probability at 32.0%, which requires minimum fair decimal odds of 3.125; the available 3.74 therefore represents positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.32 * 3.74 - 1 = +0.197 (19.7% ROI per unit staked). We use the provided current moneyline of 3.74 for the EV calculation. This pick is driven by the price disconnect between similar player profiles rather than any clear performance domination by Zheng, so variance and model uncertainty remain significant.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical documented career records (10-21) and surface experience
• • Market implies Pieri ~79.6% while comparable profiles suggest a smaller gap
• • No decisive recent-form or injury information favoring the market favorite