Highlights

• • Market implies only 28.3% for the home player; our view is ~45%
• • Required fair odds to break even are ~2.222; current 3.53 comfortably exceeds that

Pros

• + Large margin between our fair odds and market price produces a strong positive EV
• + No injury or surface disadvantage shown in the provided research to justify the short favorite

Cons

• - Research is sparse and shows both players losing recently, increasing outcome uncertainty
• - No head-to-head, ranking, or contextual data in the provided sources to further validate our edge

Details

We find value backing Xenia Bandurowska at 3.53 because the publicly provided research shows near-identical career profiles and recent form for both players, yet the market is pricing Anna Kartseva as a ~79% favorite. With no clear surface, injury, or head-to-head information to justify such a large gap, we estimate the true win probability for Bandurowska to be materially higher than the market-implied 28.3%. Comparing our estimated true probability (45%) to the market price (decimal 3.53) produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.45*3.53 - 1 = 0.589), indicating this price offers value under our conservative assessment.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records and surfaces played in the provided research
• • Recent results in the research show losses for both players—no clear form advantage for the favorite
• • Market prices heavily favor the away player (1.27) without supporting differentiating data in the research