Highlights

• • Research shows symmetric records and recent losses for both players
• • Away price 2.35 requires only ~42.6% win chance; we estimate ~48%

Pros

• + Clear pricing discrepancy between market-implied probability and our estimate
• + Conservative probability estimate still produces positive EV at current odds

Cons

• - Both players have weak recent form and small sample sizes, increasing uncertainty
• - Edge is modest; outcomes remain volatile in tennis matches

Details

We find value on Ayline Esina Samardzic at 2.35 because the available research shows near-identical career records and recent form for both players (both 10-21 over the same span, similar surfaces and recent losses). The market has priced Xenia Bandurowska as a strong favorite at 1.54 (implied ~64.9%), which appears overstated given the symmetric data. With no clear edge in form, surface preference, or injuries indicated in the provided sources, we believe the true win probability for Samardzic is materially higher than the market-implied 42.6% for the away price. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 48%, the away moneyline at 2.35 yields positive expected value. We acknowledge limited data and noisy recent results, so the edge is moderate but present at current prices.

Key factors

• • Both players show effectively identical career records and recent form in supplied data (10-21)
• • No surface or injury advantage evident from research; neutral matchup
• • Market appears to overprice the home player despite symmetric evidence