Highlights

• • Market overprices the home at ~61.9% implied — we doubt Bandurowska deserves that mark given form
• • Insufficient information on the opponent and match conditions produces high uncertainty

Pros

• + Bandurowska's documented poor recent form suggests the market favorite might be overrated
• + Underdog price (2.14) would be attractive if we had evidence Samardzic is significantly stronger

Cons

• - No data provided on Ayline Samardzic to justify a higher true probability than our estimate
• - Unknown surface/conditions and limited sample raise variance and risk of incorrect probability estimate

Details

We evaluated the available data (only a career/profile for Xenia Bandurowska and current market prices). The book market prices imply Bandurowska (home) ~61.9% (1/1.617) and Samardzic (away) ~46.7% (1/2.14). Bandurowska's documented record (10-21) and recent results show poor form, so we do not assess her true win probability as high as the market implies. However, we also lack any performance or ranking data for Ayline Samardzic in the provided research, and the surface/venue specifics are not provided — this creates substantial uncertainty. Based on the limited information, we estimate Samardzic's true win probability at ~42.0%, which is below the market-implied 46.7% required to make the 2.14 price a positive-EV play. Therefore there is no positive expected value at current prices and we do not recommend a side.

Key factors

• • Bandurowska's weak overall record (10-21) and clearly poor recent form
• • Market-implied probabilities: home 61.9% vs away 46.7% (overround present)
• • Very limited/no provided data on Ayline Samardzic and uncertain surface/conditions