Highlights

• • Market-implied probability (62.5%) > our estimate (58%), producing a negative ROI at available odds
• • Research provides no clear differentiator (surface, injury, H2H) to justify backing the underdog

Pros

• + Conservative estimate avoids taking negative-expected-value bets
• + Clear min required odds provided if odds move in future (>= 1.724)

Cons

• - Limited data restricts confidence; if additional intel (injury, conditions, H2H) emerges, the assessment could change
• - If market shifts upward for the underdog, we may miss a short-lived value opportunity

Details

We find insufficient evidence of value on either side. Both players' recent records in the supplied data are nearly identical (10-21) and the research provides no clear surface edge, injury information, or H2H edge to justify a divergence from the market. The market prices Anastasia Gasanova as the favorite at decimal 1.60 (implied ~62.5%). Our independent assessment, given limited and similar form data, places Gasanova's true win probability at ~58%, which implies required fair odds of ~1.724. At the current market price (1.60) the expected return is negative, so we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records and recent results in the provided data (10-21), offering no clear form edge
• • Market favors Gasanova at 1.60; our conservative true probability (58%) implies fair odds ~1.724, making the market price overround for value
• • No specific surface advantage, injury, or head-to-head information provided to justify taking the underdog at 2.32