Highlights

• • Market implied probability for Wang: ~82.2%
• • Our assessed probability for Wang: 78.0% → break-even odds 1.282

Pros

• + Wang has more matches and a better win-loss record on hard courts.
• + Both players have recent activity at the same venue, reducing travel/adjustment variance.

Cons

• - Market price is heavily skewed toward Wang, leaving no edge at available odds.
• - Small sample sizes and limited granular match stats for Liu create volatility in true probability estimates.

Details

We estimate Xiaofei Wang is the clear favorite given a larger match sample (18 matches, 11-7) and more consistent hard-court experience versus Shaoyun Liu (6 matches, 2-4). The market price (home 1.216) implies a win probability of ~82.2%, but based on form, head-to-head absence, and small-sample variance for Liu we place Wang's true win probability at ~78.0%. Using our estimate, the break-even decimal price would need to be >= 1.282. At the available 1.216 there is no positive expected value (EV = 0.78 * 1.216 - 1 = -0.052), so we do not recommend a bet. The short samples and limited additional detail increase uncertainty, but not enough to justify the market-implied probability.

Key factors

• • Wang has larger sample size and better overall record on hard courts (11-7 vs 2-4).
• • Market implies ~82.2% for Wang (1/1.216), which exceeds our assessed ~78% true win chance.
• • Small sample and sparse recent data for Liu increase uncertainty but do not justify the market margin.