Xiaofei Wang vs Ruslan Tiukaev
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: Wang is the deserved favorite but the 1.246 price is too short versus our 72% win estimate, producing negative expected value.
Highlights
- • Wang is clearly favored by form and season win-rate on hard courts
- • Current home price (1.246) requires >80% true win probability to be profitable — we estimate ~72%
Pros
- + Wang has the superior season record and more wins on hard
- + Both players have recent Maanshan hard-court matches (comparable conditions)
Cons
- - Wang’s market price is too short to provide value
- - Limited head-to-head and some recent losses for both players increase outcome variance
Details
We estimate Xiaofei Wang is the stronger player on hard (season win-rate ~61% vs Tiukaev ~33%) and therefore the favorite, but the market price (home 1.246 => implied win probability ~80.3%) is too short to offer value. Based on match data and recent form in Maanshan, we estimate Wang's true win probability at 72.0%, which implies fair odds of ~1.389. At the quoted home price of 1.246 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.72 * 1.246 - 1 = -0.103), so there is no value on Wang. Tiukaev's market odds (3.55) imply only ~28.2% chance; his season win-rate and results do not justify a true probability above that level in our view, so the away side also lacks clear value. Therefore we recommend taking no side at the current prices.
Key factors
- • Season records and win-rates: Wang 11-7 (61%) vs Tiukaev 8-16 (33%)
- • Both players recent matches were in Maanshan on hard; Wang shows stronger overall form on the surface
- • Market is pricing Wang at ~80% — our estimate (~72%) does not justify that price, producing negative EV