Highlights

• • Market implies 73.5% for Ye (1.361) but we estimate ~62%
• • Underdog Xing's career win rate (≈23%) and form do not support the 3.05 price as value

Pros

• + Ye has greater match experience and a better overall record
• + Both players' lack of grass history reduces the chance of a big unknown upset

Cons

• - Both players show recent losses and limited form, introducing variance
• - Odds on Ye are short; even modest deviations in our probability estimate make the decision marginal

Details

We compare the market price (Away Ye Cong Mo 1.361) to our independent view. Ye has a stronger career base (20-20 vs Xing's 5-17) and is the logical favorite, but the market is pricing Ye at ~73.5% implied probability. After adjusting for surface neutrality (both players show mostly hard-court records and no clear grass track record), recent form (both coming off losses and limited recent wins), and the clear disparity in career winning percentage, we estimate Ye's true win probability at ~62%. At that estimate the fair decimal price for Ye is ~1.613, which is longer than the current 1.361. The current price therefore offers negative expected value on the favorite (EV ≈ -0.156 for a 1-unit stake). Xing's career win rate and recent results do not justify lifting his true win probability enough to make the 3.05 quote a value play. Given our probability model and the available odds, there is no positive EV on either side.

Key factors

• • Ye Cong Mo has a substantially better career record (20-20) than Xing Dao Chen (5-17)
• • Both players have little or no recorded grass experience; surface is neutral in our view
• • Market heavily favors Ye (implied ~73.5%), which exceeds our estimated true probability (~62%)