Xtreme vs PVISION
Esport
2025-09-11 17:56
Start: 2025-09-12 14:15
Summary
No pick
EV: -0.034
Current Odds
Home 1.704|Away 2.16
Best Odds
Match Info
Match key: Xtreme_PVISION_2025-09-12
Analysis
Summary: We find no value at current prices; the market slightly overstates Xtreme's chances versus our conservative estimate, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Xtreme estimated win probability: 56.0%
- • Market odds imply Xtreme win probability ~57.97% (no positive EV)
Pros
- + Conservative, data-light assessment reduces overconfidence
- + Clearly identifies that market price offers no margin for value
Cons
- - Lack of detailed team/form/injury data increases uncertainty
- - If additional inside information exists, our conservative estimate may understate value
Details
We conservatively estimate Xtreme (home) as a slight favorite given home status and no contrary information; we assign a true-win probability of 56.0% for Xtreme. The market decimal price for Xtreme (1.725) implies an implied probability around 57.97%, which is slightly higher than our estimate, producing negative edge. Without reliable form, injury, or H2H data, we avoid overstating an edge. Betting PVISION would also be negative EV under our conservative estimates. Therefore we recommend no bet because current prices do not offer positive expected value relative to our probability estimate.
Key factors
- • No external form, injury, or H2H data available — we adopt conservative priors
- • Home advantage assumed modestly in Xtreme's favor
- • Market-implied probability (57.97% for Xtreme) slightly exceeds our estimate (56.0%)