Highlights

• • Normalized market-implied probability for Xtreme ≈ 67.2%
• • Offered home odds (1.392) are below the min required odds (1.488) for positive EV

Pros

• + Market clearly favors Xtreme which aligns with a conservative estimate of higher win probability
• + Price is stable and widely available (low likelihood of finding better public prices)

Cons

• - Available home odds do not provide a positive edge versus our conservative probability
• - No independent info to justify deviating from the market — higher uncertainty

Details

We have no external form, injury, or H2H data, so we take a conservative approach and start from the market-implied probabilities (adjusted for bookmaker vig). The market prices normalize to roughly a 67.2% chance for Xtreme and 32.8% for Tundra. Using that conservative estimate (we round to 67.2% for Xtreme) the break-even decimal price is ~1.488. The available home price of 1.392 is below that threshold, producing a negative expected value. Given the lack of independent information to justify materially diverging from the market, we recommend no bet because neither side offers positive EV at current prices.

Key factors

• • No external/team-specific information available — conservative market-based stance
• • Market-implied probabilities (vig removed) give Xtreme ~67.2% win probability
• • Current home price (1.392) is below the fair break-even price (~1.488) so negative EV