Highlights

• • Home implied probability 62.1% vs our estimate 58.0%
• • Required fair odds for home to be +EV: ≥1.724; current is 1.61

Pros

• + We use conservative assumptions to avoid overestimating value
• + Clear numeric thresholds provided (min required odds and EV)

Cons

• - High uncertainty due to lack of research on form, surface, and injuries
• - Our conservative estimate could be overly cautious if unobserved edges exist

Details

We have no contemporary research on form, surface, injuries, or H2H, so we must be conservative. The market prices give decimal odds Home=1.61 (implied ~62.1%) and Away=2.20 (implied ~45.5%), but those include bookmaker vig. Based on conservative assumptions for a doubles match with no additional data, we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 58.0% (0.58) — below the market-implied 62.1% — because there is no evidence to justify a >62% edge. At the current home price (1.61) the expected value is 0.58*1.61 - 1 = -0.066 (≈ -6.6% ROI), so there is no value on the home side. To recommend the home side we would need decimal odds >= 1.724. Given the high uncertainty (no research returned) and the negative EV at current prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No contextual research returned (form, injuries, surface, H2H unknown) — high uncertainty
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.61) is ~62.1%; our conservative estimate is 58.0%
• • Negative EV at current prices (home EV ≈ -6.6%), so no value for either side