Y. Hosoki/K. Yoshioka vs Na Hyun Kang/Jeong Moon

Highlights

• • Market price: Home 1.36 => implied 73.5% win chance
• • Our estimate: Home ~72% => negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Away players have weak recent records and form, supporting a home-favored outcome
• + Market suggests a clear favorite, which is plausible given available away-data

Cons

• - No data provided on the home pairing; their true level is unknown and could change the assessment
• - Small gap between our probability estimate and the market-implied probability results in marginal economics and high sensitivity to estimation error

Details

We compared the market price (home 1.36 => implied win probability 73.5%) to our estimated true probability for the home pairing. The only available player-level research covers the away pairing: both Na Hyun Kang and Jeong Moon show weak recent results (career season records around 10-21 and multiple recent losses), indicating low form. There is no research provided on the home pairing (Y. Hosoki/K. Yoshioka), creating significant uncertainty about their true strength; the market appears to price the home pair as a strong favorite. Based on the limited data, we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 72.0% (p=0.72), which implies required fair decimal odds of 1.389. At the quoted market price of 1.36 the expected value for a 1-unit stake is negative (EV = 0.72*1.36 - 1 ≈ -0.021), so there is no value at current prices and we do not recommend placing a bet.

Key factors

• • Away players (Na Hyun Kang & Jeong Moon) show poor recent form and 10-21 season records
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.36) = 73.5%, slightly above our estimated true probability
• • No available data on the home pairing creates elevated uncertainty about the true matchup balance