Y. Hosoki/K. Yoshioka vs Sun Min Ha/Cheuk Ying Shek

Highlights

• • Home priced 1.14 vs our fair price ~1.11
• • Away includes a player with demonstrably poor recent results

Pros

• + Market overprices the away team given known weakness
• + Positive expected value at common available odds

Cons

• - Analysis relies on limited public data (only away-player profile available)
• - Small margin of edge; market movements or unobserved factors could eliminate value

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.14) to our estimate of the true win probability. The only actionable research available shows Cheuk Ying Shek has a weak recent record (10-21 career, poor recent results), which strongly discounts the away pairing. The market is pricing the home side as a heavy favorite; given the documented weakness of one away player and absence of evidence that the away pair is stronger, we estimate the home team’s true win probability materially above the implied price. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 90%, the home price of 1.14 yields a positive expected value: EV = 0.90 * 1.14 - 1 = 0.026 (2.6% ROI). The minimum fair decimal price to break even at our probability is 1.111, which is below the current 1.14, so we find value on the home side at current widely-available prices.

Key factors

• • Cheuk Ying Shek’s poor recent form and overall 10-21 record reduces the away pair’s expected competitiveness
• • Market prices strongly favour the home team (1.14), and our estimated probability (90%) implies a better fair price than the market
• • Limited information on the home pairing increases model uncertainty but market implied probability still appears overstated relative to known away weakness