Highlights

• • Home implied probability (41.7%) appears slightly underpriced relative to our 45% estimate
• • Current odds 2.40 are above our minimum fair odds (2.222), yielding positive EV

Pros

• + Positive expected value at quoted price (approximately +8% ROI)
• + Market margin and limited match-specific data increase chance of exploitable inefficiency

Cons

• - Recommendation relies on limited publicly-available information (no detailed form/injury data)
• - Value margin is modest; outcome variance in doubles can still produce losses

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities (Away 1.55 => 64.5%, Home 2.40 => 41.7%) and note a bookmaker margin of ~6.2% across the two prices. With only surface (hard outdoor) and quoted odds available, we account for inherent variance in doubles and limited public data on form/injuries, which suggests the market may be slightly overpricing the favorite. We estimate the true chance for the home side at 45.0%, which produces positive value at the available decimal 2.40 (EV = 0.45*2.40 - 1 = +0.08, or +8% ROI). The minimum fair decimal to justify the bet at our probability is 2.222, and the current 2.40 exceeds that, so this represents a modest value play against a favorite-heavy market.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability shows the away side as a clear favorite (64.5%)
• • Limited publicly-available form/injury information increases outcome variance in doubles
• • Bookmaker margin (~6.2%) leaves room for small inefficiencies; current home price (2.40) exceeds our fair threshold (2.222)