Y. Ezzat/D. Yesypchuk vs E. Khodzhaeva/E. Maklakova

Highlights

• • Market implies home win of ~74.6% at 1.34
• • Our conservative true-win estimate is 70%, which does not justify betting the favorite

Pros

• + Favorite price is short and reflects perceived strong likelihood of home win
• + If additional reliable positive data for home emerges, value could appear at longer odds

Cons

• - No available research on form, surface, injuries or direct match data increases uncertainty
• - Current market price is too low relative to our conservative probability estimate to offer positive EV

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to a conservative estimate given no available research. The market prices the home side at 1.34 (implied probability 74.6%). Absent form, surface, injury or H2H data, we adopt a conservative estimated true probability for the home team of 70.0% to account for unknowns and potential bookmaker margin. At that estimate the fair decimal fair price would be 1.429 (1 / 0.70). Using the current market price (1.34) yields a negative expected return (EV = 0.70 * 1.34 - 1 = -0.062), so there is no value on the favorite at the quoted odds. The away price (3.05) implies ~32.8%; even if we adjusted probabilities slightly, we do not find positive EV on either side with reasonable conservative estimates, so we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (1.34) = 74.6%
• • No external data available on form, surface, injuries, or H2H — we apply a conservative estimate
• • Conservative estimate (70%) produces negative EV at current favorite price