Highlights

• • Home implied probability 80.6% vs our 88% estimate
• • Positive EV (~0.091) at available price 1.24

Pros

• + Away team contains a player with clear recent struggles, lowering their win chances
• + Current market price still generous enough relative to our probability estimate

Cons

• - Incomplete information on Suha Lee and the home pairing limits confidence
• - No surface/H2H data provided; uncertainty could reduce actual edge

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.24, implied win prob 80.6%) to our assessment based on the available research. The only detailed data provided is for Ha Yoon Son, who has a 10-21 career record and very weak recent form (only 1 win shown in the recent sequence), which suggests the away pair is underperforming. Given that the home side is offered at a short price but still above a fair breakeven for a solid favorite, we estimate the home team's true win probability materially above the market-implied 80.6% (we estimate 88%). That produces positive expected value at the available 1.24 price. We acknowledge limited data on Suha Lee and no direct H2H/surface breakdown, so we conservatively temper our edge to account for uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Ha Yoon Son's poor career record and recent form (10-21, very few recent wins)
• • Market-implied probability for home (80.6%) is lower than our estimated true probability (88%)
• • Limited data on Suha Lee and doubles pairing increases uncertainty despite apparent value