Highlights

• • Away odds (1.3) imply ~76.9% win chance; research suggests that is likely overstated.
• • Home at 3.2 implies ~31.3% but we estimate ~36.0% true probability, giving positive EV.

Pros

• + Clear negative form indicator for a member of the favourite team (0-5), lowering true win chance.
• + Home price (3.2) offers a significant cushion vs our probability estimate.

Cons

• - Research dataset is sparse and lacks doubles-specific performance and partner information.
• - If Seongwoo Cho substantially offsets Yang's weaknesses, our probability may be optimistic.

Details

We compare the market odds to our assessment. The public price makes the away pair heavy favourites at 1.3 (implied win probability ~76.9%) while the home side is priced at 3.2 (implied ~31.3%). Research shows Zijiang Yang (part of the away pairing) has a very poor recent record (0-5 across career matches listed), indicating substantive form concerns that the market may be underweight. Given limited additional data but clear negative form signal for one member of the favourite team, we estimate the home pairing's true win probability materially above the market-implied 31.3% — we estimate 36.0%. At the current home price of 3.2 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.36 * 3.2 - 1 = +0.152), so the home moneyline represents value. We remain cautious due to sparse dataset and lack of details on partners or doubles-specific form, so probability estimation carries uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Away favourite includes Zijiang Yang who has 0-5 recent career record and poor form
• • Market heavily favors the away side (1.3) — implied probability likely overstates true chance given form data
• • Limited data and doubles-specific uncertainty increases estimation risk despite apparent value