Highlights

• • Normalized home win probability ≈ 55.3%
• • Fair home decimal needed for break-even ≈ 1.807; current 1.68 offers no value

Pros

• + Clear market favorite identified after overround normalization
• + Surface (hard outdoor) is known, avoiding surface-unknown uncertainty

Cons

• - No match-specific form, injury, or H2H data provided to justify deviation from market
• - Current prices are shorter than our fair odds, producing negative expected value

Details

We normalized the quoted market prices to remove the bookmaker overround and derived an estimated true win probability for the home pair. The market decimals (Home 1.68, Away 2.08) imply raw probabilities of ~59.5% and ~48.1% respectively; after normalization the home probability is about 55.3%. At that estimated probability the fair decimal price for the home side would be ~1.807. Comparing this to the current home price (1.68) yields a negative expected value (EV ≈ -0.071 for a 1-unit stake), so the available quotes do not offer value on either side. We also note the only surface information provided is hard (outdoor); no specific form, injury, or head-to-head details were available to materially change our probability estimate, increasing uncertainty. Because expected value at current widely-available prices is negative, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker prices imply a ~55.3% true win probability for the home side after normalizing overround
• • Available surface data: hard (outdoor); no team-specific form, injury, or H2H details to adjust probability
• • Current market price (home 1.68) is shorter than our fair price (~1.807), producing negative EV