Ya Yi Yang vs Jemma Carbis

Highlights

• • Bookmaker pricing appears extreme (1.01) and offers no positive EV under our estimate
• • Insufficient opponent data increases uncertainty and risk

Pros

• + Ya Yi Yang has recent match experience on hard, matching available surface history
• + Market consensus strongly favors Ya Yi Yang, so match is likely to be straightforward if market is correct

Cons

• - Ya Yi Yang’s overall 10-21 record and recent losses reduce confidence in a near-certain win probability
• - Lack of information on Jemma Carbis prevents a reliable underdog valuation; market may be mispricing risk but uncertainty is high

Details

The market price (Ya Yi Yang 1.01 / Jemma Carbis 16.0) implies an extremely high probability (~99%) for Ya Yi Yang. Our assessment, based only on the available player profile for Ya Yi Yang, assigns her a substantially lower true win probability (85%) because her career record (10-21) and recent results do not support near-certainty. Using our 85% estimate, the expected value of a back on Ya Yi Yang at 1.01 is negative (EV = 0.85*1.01 - 1 = -0.142), so there is no value on the heavy favorite at current prices. Conversely the 16.0 price for the away player would only be justifiable if we thought the underdog had ≥6.25% chance (1/16), but given the available data we cannot credibly raise the away win probability above that threshold while maintaining conservative modeling. Due to extremely limited information on Jemma Carbis and Ya Yi Yang’s unimpressive form, we decline to recommend a side despite the market distortions.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~99% favorite for Ya Yi Yang (1.01) — likely overstated
• • Ya Yi Yang career/results (10-21) and recent losses suggest vulnerability
• • No available data on Jemma Carbis increases model uncertainty
• • Surface exposure (hard) is consistent with Ya Yi Yang’s recent matches but does not justify near-certainty