Ya-Hsuan Lee vs Dabin Kim
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value edge exists at current prices: both players look evenly matched and the market odds are richer than our fair estimate, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Players are statistically indistinguishable in the provided research
- • Current decimal odds (1.86) are below our required threshold (2.00) for value
Pros
- + Clear, conservative estimate based on available data avoids overreach
- + Market is symmetric — no hidden favorite to exploit
Cons
- - Limited dataset prevents identification of subtle edges (conditioning, fatigue, travel)
- - If unseen factors exist (injury or matchup quirks), our 50% estimate could be off
Details
We find no value in backing either player at the current prices. Both Ya-Hsuan Lee and Dabin Kim present effectively identical profiles in the provided data (matching career records, surfaces played and recent results), so our best estimate of the true win probability is approximately 50% for each. The market moneyline of 1.86 implies an implied probability of ~53.76% (1/1.86) which is higher than our estimated 50% chance, producing a negative expected value. Without a clear edge from form, surface, injury or head-to-head information in the research, the fair price required to justify a bet would be about 2.00 decimal or better.
Key factors
- • Both players show identical career records and nearly identical recent results in the provided data
- • No distinguishing surface advantage, injury information, or head-to-head data available
- • Market odds (1.86) imply ~53.8% while our fair estimate is ~50%, yielding a negative EV