Ya-Hsuan Lee vs Natsuki Yoshimoto
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend a value bet on the home underdog Ya-Hsuan Lee because the bookmaker odds (3.75) understate her chance to win relative to our conservative 33% estimate, producing positive expected value.
Highlights
- • Implied home probability at current odds: 26.7% vs our estimate 33%
- • Minimum fair odds needed for value: 3.03 — current 3.75 > 3.03
Pros
- + Clear pricing discrepancy between market and on-paper parity
- + No injury or form evidence to justify the heavy favorite
Cons
- - Research is limited — both profiles are similar and small sample size increases uncertainty
- - If there are unreported factors (practice, travel, matchup specifics) favoring the favorite, value could evaporate
Details
We view the market price as overstating the away player (1.23) given the research: both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form on comparable surfaces, with no injury or other edge apparent. The book implies the home underdog (Ya-Hsuan Lee) has ~26.7% chance (1/3.75) to win, which underweights the parity evident in the data. Conservatively estimating Ya-Hsuan Lee's true win probability at 33.0% reflects that the matchup is closer to even than the market implies. At that probability the home side offers positive expectation: EV = 0.33 * 3.75 - 1 = 0.2375 (≈23.8% ROI). Because current decimal odds (3.75) exceed the minimum fair odds (3.03) derived from our probability, this represents value under our model.
Key factors
- • Both players have essentially identical career records (10-21) and recent form across hard/clay — no clear performance edge
- • Market strongly favors the away player (1.23), implying a home win probability (~26.7%) that understates likely parity
- • No reported injuries or surface/venue advantage in the research to justify the heavy favorite pricing