Highlights

• • Normalized conservative home win estimate: 52.5%
• • Required minimum price for value on home: 1.905 (current 1.826 is below this)

Pros

• + Market recognizes Yakutou Brothers as the favorite, suggesting some edge may exist in other conditions
• + If additional reliable intel (map advantage, roster news) appears, pricing could be exploitable

Cons

• - No positive expected value at current odds after conservative probability adjustment
• - High uncertainty due to no available external research (form, injuries, H2H, map pool)

Details

We have no external match intelligence, so we apply conservative probability estimation and account for the bookmaker margin. The market prices (Home 1.826, Away 2.00) imply raw probabilities of ~54.8% and 50.0% respectively (sum >100% indicates a ~4.76% overround). Normalizing and applying a conservative home edge, we estimate Yakutou Brothers' true win probability at 52.5%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.905. The offered home price (1.826) is below our minimum required price for value, producing a negative expected value. The away price is also unattractive versus our conservative estimates. Given the lack of data (form, roster changes, map pool, H2H) and the bookmaker margin, there is no positive EV at the current quotes, so we do not recommend taking a side.

Key factors

• • No external match data available (form, roster, map picks), so estimates are conservative
• • Bookmaker overround (~4.8%) inflates implied probabilities; we normalized before our estimate
• • Home slight edge assumed but not large enough to justify betting at 1.826