Yanaki Milev vs Eero Vasa
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: the market slightly overprices Eero Vasa relative to our 62% estimate, producing a small negative EV on the favorite and no compensating edge on the underdog.
Highlights
- • Market favorite (Vasa) implied 63.3% vs our 62% estimate → small negative EV
- • Underdog Milev would need odds above ~2.63 (implied <38%) to represent value against our view
Pros
- + Clear data edge: Vasa's superior win-rate and match volume supports him being the likely winner
- + Price on Vasa is close to our fair estimate, so downside is limited (small negative EV)
Cons
- - Both players recent form on clay is poor, which reduces confidence in a large gap between them
- - No meaningful pricing inefficiency to exploit at current widely-available odds
Details
We estimate Eero Vasa as the stronger player with an estimated win probability of 62% based on a materially better career win rate (36-26 vs 24-26), greater match volume, and both players showing recent losses on clay which reduces any form-based swing. The market prices Vasa at 1.58 (implied 63.3%) and Yanaki Milev at 2.38 (implied 42.0%). Comparing our estimate (62%) to the market, the favorite is slightly overpriced by the market (market implies ~63.3% vs our 62%), producing a small negative expected value at the current 1.58 price. The underdog price (2.38) would require Yanaki to be ~42.0%+ to be fair value versus our view (we estimate Yanaki ~38%), so the underdog also lacks value. Therefore we do not recommend a side at the current prices.
Key factors
- • Eero Vasa has a stronger career win rate (36-26) vs Yanaki Milev (24-26)
- • Both players recorded recent losses on clay — form near-term is weak for both
- • Market-implied probability for Vasa (~63.3%) is slightly higher than our estimate (62%), leaving no value