Highlights

• • Hugo implied prob 74.6% vs our 72.0% → negative EV at 1.34
• • Yanis would need ~3.571 to be +EV by our 28% estimate; market is 3.00

Pros

• + Market clearly favors Hugo, which matches our conservative assessment
• + No bet avoids negative-expected-value plays given current prices

Cons

• - High uncertainty due to lack of form, surface, and injury information
• - A small model error could flip EV; tight margins around the favorite

Details

We compared the market prices to conservative, evidence-light probability estimates because no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data are available. The market implies Hugo Maurice (away) has a 74.63% chance (1/1.34) and Yanis Peterhans (home) a 33.33% chance (1/3.00). Based on a conservative internal estimate we assign Hugo Maurice a 72.0% chance to win and Yanis Peterhans a 28.0% chance. At our 72% estimate, the fair decimal price for Hugo would be ~1.389; the available price of 1.34 is shorter than fair, producing a negative expected value. Similarly, Yanis at our 28% estimate would require decimal odds of 3.571 to be +EV, while the market offers 3.00 — also negative EV. Given these comparisons, neither side offers positive expected value at the quoted prices, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No external matchup, form, or injury data — using conservative priors
• • Market implies Hugo 74.6% while our estimate is 72.0% (market is slightly overconfident)
• • Underdog payout (Yanis at 3.00) insufficient vs our underdog win estimate (28%)