Highlights

• • Max is a hard-court specialist with a superior raw win rate on that surface
• • Current away price (1.80) is slightly generous relative to our 58% estimate

Pros

• + Surface alignment favors Max (hard only) vs Yanki who splits surfaces
• + Positive EV at widely available market price (1.80)

Cons

• - Smaller sample for Max (24 matches) increases variance and uncertainty
• - No head-to-head or detailed recent-match context provided; form signals are mixed for both

Details

We compare bookmaker-implied probabilities to our assessment using only the provided player profiles. The market prices Yanki Erel at 1.91 (implied 52.4%) and Max Basing at 1.80 (implied 55.6%). Max's profile shows a strong win rate on hard courts (18-6, surfaces played: Hard only), while Yanki has a larger overall sample (40-21) across clay and hard but more mixed recent results. Given Max's clear hard-court specialization and higher raw win percentage on the surface, we assign Max a true win probability materially above the market's 55.6% (we estimate 58%). At decimal 1.80 that estimate produces positive expected value (EV = 0.58 * 1.80 - 1 = 0.044), so the away price represents value. We factor in sample-size risk for Max and Yanki's greater match volume when sizing our confidence; those risks lower the certainty but do not eliminate value at the current price.

Key factors

• • Max Basing's record is 18-6 and played exclusively on hard courts (surface fit advantage)
• • Yanki Erel has larger sample (40-21) across clay and hard but shows more mixed recent results
• • Bookmaker implies 55.6% for Max; our surface-adjusted estimate is higher (58%), producing positive EV