Highlights

• • Yanki Erel has the superior career win rate and larger match sample
• • Current odds (1.117) require an implied win probability (~89.6%) above our estimate

Pros

• + Clear statistical advantage in career win-loss
• + Both players show mixed recent form, reducing volatility risk

Cons

• - Market-implied probability is higher than our assessed true probability
• - No H2H or injury info to justify demanding such short odds

Details

We view Yanki Erel as the clear favorite based on career win-loss (40-21) versus S D Prajwal Dev (18-25) and more consistent recent match load, but the market price (1.117) already implies ~89.6% chance. After factoring career winning percentages, recent form (both have recent losses), surface neutrality (both have played clay and hard) and the absence of head-to-head or injury information, we estimate Yanki Erel's true win probability at ~82%. That estimate is materially below the market-implied probability required to make a positive expectation at the available price. Using the current decimal odds (1.117) the expected value is negative (EV = 0.82 * 1.117 - 1 ≈ -0.084), so there is no value to back the favorite at current prices. To be +EV on Yanki Erel we would need odds >= 1/0.82 ≈ 1.22.

Key factors

• • Career records strongly favor Yanki Erel (40-21 vs 18-25)
• • Recent form mixed for both; no clear injury or H2H data to shift probability
• • Market heavily prices Erel (~89.6% implied) leaving little margin for error