Yannis Batsabaken vs Hugo Cardinaud

Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability for home: 73%
• • Current market price (1.41) offers ~2.9% ROI at our estimate

Pros

• + Away player shows limited experience and recent losses on the surface
• + Market price is slightly above our fair odds (1.41 vs required 1.37)

Cons

• - Very small margin of value — depends on limited available data
• - No direct data on the home player's form, ranking or injury status in the provided research

Details

The market prices Yannis Batsabaken at 1.41 (implied ~70.9%). Our assessment raises the home win probability slightly to 73% based on the provided research: Hugo Cardinaud has only three recorded matches (1-2) on hard courts with two recent losses, indicating limited form and experience on this surface. With our estimated true probability (0.73) the fair decimal price is 1.37, which is below the available 1.41, producing a small positive edge. The edge is modest and sensitive to uncertainty because we lack direct data on the home player's recent form and head-to-head, so the recommendation is conservative — back the home favorite only at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (1.41) is ~70.9%, we estimate slightly higher true probability at 73%
• • Away player Hugo Cardinaud: limited sample (3 matches), 1-2 record, two recent losses on hard courts
• • No additional injury or head-to-head information in the provided research, increasing uncertainty