Yarina Andreea Capraru vs Valeria Garnevska
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: the favourite's price is too short to offer positive EV unless its true win probability exceeds ~98.04%, and the underdog's upset chance appears well below the >7.7% needed.
Highlights
- • Favorite implied probability (1.02) is ~98.04%; our conservative estimate is 97%
- • Underdog would need >7.69% chance to be profitable at 13.0; our estimate ~3%
Pros
- + Market clearly identifies a dominant favourite, which reduces likelihood of overlooked value in the short-priced side
- + Conservative stance avoids taking tiny-negative-expected-value 'sure things'
Cons
- - If unknown factors (injury, withdrawal, travel, illness) affect the favourite, value could suddenly appear on the underdog
- - Longshot payouts can be attractive if one is willing to accept high variance, but current price still requires a substantially higher upset probability than we estimate
Details
We see an extreme market price: Valeria Garnevska is a near-lock at 1.02 while Yarina Capraru is 13.0. With no independent form, surface, injury, or H2H data available, we take a conservative estimate that the favorite's true win probability is about 97% (underdog 3%). At the quoted 1.02 the favourite needs a true win probability >98.04% to be +EV; our conservative 97% estimate yields a small negative expectation (EV ≈ -0.0106). Conversely, the underdog at 13.0 would need >7.692% chance to be +EV; our 3% upset estimate is well below that threshold. Given those comparisons we find no value on either side at current prices and therefore do not recommend a bet.
Key factors
- • Market-implied odds show a near-certain favourite (1.02) and a longshot (13.0)
- • No independent data on surface, injuries, form, or H2H — we use conservative estimates
- • Break-even thresholds: favourite needs >98.04% win chance; underdog needs >7.692% win chance