Highlights

• • Yash has only 5 recorded matches (1-4) and a recent loss on hard court.
• • At our conservative estimate (65% for Sehaj), current odds yield a -1.2% ROI.

Pros

• + Market favorite is short but reflects Yash's weak form, so avoiding a bet is prudent.
• + Limited sample size for Yash reduces confidence in any underdog backing.

Cons

• - If Sehaj is substantially stronger than we estimate, current odds could understate his true probability.
• - Lack of opponent data (Sehaj) increases uncertainty and potential for missed value.

Details

We reviewed the limited data available: Yash Yadav has a very short professional record (1-4) with all recorded matches on hard courts and a recent loss, indicating poor form and limited experience. The market prices Sehaj Singh Pawar as the clear favorite at 1.52 (implied win probability ~65.8%). Given the lack of any positive indicators for Yash and no detailed information on Sehaj, we judge Sehaj to be a slight favorite but do not find sufficient edge versus the market price. Using a conservative estimated true probability for Sehaj of 65.0% (reflecting Yash's weak record but allowing uncertainty), the market odds (1.52) produce a small negative EV: EV = 0.65 * 1.52 - 1 = -0.012 (-1.2% ROI). The minimum decimal odds required to make a bet on Sehaj profitable at our estimate would be 1 / 0.65 = 1.538, which is above the current 1.52. Therefore we recommend taking no side as there is no value at current prices.

Key factors

• • Yash Yadav's poor recent form and 1-4 career record on hard courts
• • Market strongly favors the away player at 1.52 (implied ~65.8%)
• • No available information on Sehaj Singh Pawar to suggest market is mispriced